Thoughts on “The Decision”

We are a little over a week from last Thursday, when Lebron James announced on a much hyped national telecast that he would be taking his talents to South Beach to join the Miami Heat.

There has been so much reaction to Lebron, mostly negative. I’ve heard the disloyal card thrown out, and another popular reaction is that he ran from the challenge of winning on his own, now that he will have the help of fellow superstars Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh.

Personally, I think I respect Lebron a bit more after he made the decision to join the Miami Heat. While I do think he could have handled the show better (let’s be honest, if he wanted to give the Boys and Girls Club money, he could have wrote them a check for a few million and spared the spectacle), I think he showed that winning and comfort really does matter to him, and I can respect that.

I felt that Lebron would either stay in Cleveland, or go to New York. I figured that he could be the hometown hero in Cleveland if he won a championship, or I thought he would be very much revered if he went to the Knicks and won even 1 Championship.

I also had the notion that Lebron would be the kind of guy that wanted enough talent around him to allow him to win, while also allowing him to be the main attraction. I felt going to New York with Stoudemire and some added pieces would represent that type of situation.

Lebron James undoubtedly has the talent to go down as one of the top 3-5 players to ever play the game. Now that he will be joining this team, I really do not think he has the chance to be recognized as such anymore.

James will never be the man in Miami. While he may have the best numbers, it will be hard to know who is really the best out of Wade and James, since they are both such great superstars. The Heat will also be recognized as more of Wade’s team than James, since Wade has such a history there and is staying there, whereas James has the legacy in Cleveland and is joining Wade. There is the notion that James is going to be a sidekick, and it will be near impossible for James to shake that and turn into “the man” in Miami.

Also, say the Heat go on to win 5 titles with this superstar team. Wade will always have 1 more ring than James since he has one already. In addition, critics would be quick to point out in that scenario, Wade won a title with his original team in Miami, while Lebron could not get over the hump in Cleveland even though they were the top seed in the East 2 seasons in a row, and actually made the Finals in 2007.

If Lebron goes on to stay in Miami and win multiple titles, whenever you look back on his career in 30-40 years, the first 2 words muttered after his name will be Wade and Bosh. It will be impossible to know what he would have did without them, but it will also be impossible to talk about Lebron and his legacy without acknowledging that he played on perhaps the most talented team ever assembled, at least as far as star power is concerned.

Lebron left some money on the table, and in my opinion, threw away the chance to ever be known as the greatest ever. Lebron James sacrificed his “brand” for the chance to win, and be with his friends.

For a guy that has been pumped up as perhaps more than human, he made a very human, down to earth decision.

And I respect him for that.

Not a fan of the NBA 2-3-2 Finals format

I will use this opportunity to say how much I dislike the 2-3-2 format of the Finals. For every other series, it is 2-2-1-1-1.

Why the change?

Teams are supposed to be at a distinct advantage if they are the higher seed. This is because if a higher seed simply defends their home court every game, they will win the series, without having to win on the road.

Well, in the finals, the Lakers are the higher seed, and while it is true that if they were to win every game in LA they would have won the series 4-3, doing so would also have them facing elimination in both games 6 and 7.

I do not like that at all. The team with the home-field advantage should never have to face elimination before game 7.

Why reward Boston with the chance to defend home-court and be up 3-2 heading into Game 6 putting the Lakers on the ropes? Why give Boston a chance to split in LA, and then to end it in Boston with 3 straight games there?

Really do not get this format.

Looking back on my NBA predictions

Prior to the NBA Playoffs, I posted my NBA playoff predictions.

I thought it would be interesting to see how accurate they were.

http://charmcitysportstalk.com/2010/04/16/nba-playoff-predictions/

Eastern Conference First Round

Cleveland over Chicago

Orlando over Charlotte

Atlanta over Milwaukee

Boston over Miami

Western Conference First Round

Lakers over Thunder

Mavericks over Spurs

Phoenix over Portland

Nuggets over Jazz

Eastern Conference 2nd round

Boston over Cleveland

Orlando over Atlanta

Western Conference 2nd round

Lakers over Nuggets

Mavericks over Suns

West Finals

Lakers over Mavericks

East Finals

Celtics over Magic

Finals

Lakers over Boston in 7

I had 6 of the 8 first round series’ correct, losing out on the Denver and Mavericks picks.

It does not surprise me that the Spurs were able to match up well with Dallas and send them home early. It does surprise me that Denver played as poorly as they did. Really shows what losing a good coach can do to a team.

Here’s what I had to say about the Boston Celtics…

- I think the Celtics will be motivated in the playoffs, and will want to get to the Finals. Rumors of the Celtics, and the Big 3 demise, are greatly exaggerated. It is hard for 3 30+ guys who have won a Championship to keep their focus and motivation in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different story. This applies to the Lakers as well.

I think this has proven to be very accurate. Really did not think that the Celtics cared too much about the regular season, believing that they could easily win on the road rather than going all out to lock up home-court advantage. This goes for the Lakers’ late season “struggles” as well.

I had this to say about the West vs. the East…

- While the bottom of the East is a big step below the top 4, any team in the West can win any series. While I have chalk advancing in the West in the first round, the Spurs certainly have a legitimate chance to beat the Mavs; same with the Blazers over Suns, or Jazz over Nuggets. I would also not be surprised to see the Thunder take the Lakers to game 6 or 7, but would still expect the Lakers to prevail.

This turned out to be true as well. The lower seeded Spurs and Jazz pulled out the series wins, while the top seeds in the East all advanced out of the 1st round.

On the Cavs and Mike Brown…

- If this scenario plays out and the Cavaliers lose in the 2nd round, I am going to assume that Mike Brown gets fired. Failing to make the Finals for the 2nd straight year would be a blow to Cleveland, and it would be very interesting to see how that would affect Lebron’s decision this offseason.

This has played out as I thought as well. Mike Brown has been fired, and Lebron is currently setting up his free agent tour of the country. Had the Cavs won, I can’t see Lebron leaving the defending champions.

Finally, here’s what I had to say about Phil Jackson, which is still pending..

- The Lakers winning it all is likely to be the difference in Phil Jackson coaching the team next year, vs. Brian Shaw, Kurt Rambis, or Mike D’Antoni. Jackson will have to come back for the 2010-2011 season if he has the chance to 3-peat for the second time with the Lakers, and for the 4th time in his coaching career.

If they do not win, things could get dicey. Jackson is already going year to year, and there is talk that Lakers’ owner Jerry Buss may ask Jackson to take a pay cut to come back next year. If the Lakers win the Championship this year, I would expect things to work out for Jackson to come back to LA, but if they come up short, the Lakers, while the team would likely remain in tact, could be taking on a different look over on the bench.

I think it is more likely that Jackson coaches next year than retires, and since I wrote this, rumors have been swirling about other teams being interested in him.

While I think it’s more likely than it was 2 months ago that Jackson could return to LA even if they lose this series, I feel it’s a 99.99% given that Jackson will be back with the Lakers if they go on to win this championship.

Jackson would have a chance to be a three-peat championship 4 times over. He’s not going to walk away from that.

With the series tied 2-2, I’m sticking with my finals prediction of Lakers in 7. Should be a fun final 3 games.

Wizards get 1st pick in 2010 draft

Today, the Washington Wizards won the NBA draft lottery, and will pick 1st in this summer’s draft

In other words, John Wall will be starting for the Wizards come October.

For a team that has been decimated by injuries and underperforming veterans the past few seasons, John Wall going to Washington is going to be a much-needed spark for the city.

With John Wall potentially in the mix, added to a core that includes Andray Blatche, Al Thornton, plus a late first rounder, rumors are going to circulate that A) the Wizards could potentially go after a max contract FA, and B) that the Wizards will be as motivated as ever to get rid of Gilbert Arenas.

I do not see Arenas and Wall co-existing. It was one thing if the Wiz were going to be a below average, rebuilding team with Arenas returning. While his contract would still be a detriment, the on-court play of the team would not really have suffered.

But the Wiz have a real opportunity with Wall on-board. They can build a team that can instantly compete in the East.

Many people suspected that the Nets could get Lebron, draft Wall, and instantly compete and be a high-profile team.

If the Wiz choose to go down that route, they could potentially be in the same type of situation.

Also, if they were able to get out from Arenas’ contract somehow, they could possibly go after 2 max free agents.

It all depends on whether or not the free agents buy-in. I realize the New York factor would have been big for the hypothetical New Jersey scenarios, but Wall makes Washington an attractive destination.

Ultimately, how attractive Washington is in the eyes of the big-time free agents will likely decide which plan of action the Wizards take this summer.

At any rate, the Wizards immediate and long-term future just got a lot brighter tonight.

NBA Playoff Predictions

Eastern Conference First Round

Cleveland over Chicago

Orlando over Charlotte

Atlanta over Milwaukee

Boston over Miami

Western Conference First Round

Lakers over Thunder

Mavericks over Spurs

Phoenix over Portland

Nuggets over Jazz

Eastern Conference 2nd round

Boston over Cleveland

Orlando over Atlanta

Western Conference 2nd round

Lakers over Nuggets

Mavericks over Suns

West Finals

Lakers over Mavericks

East Finals

Celtics over Magic

Finals

Lakers over Boston in 7

- I think the Celtics will be motivated in the playoffs, and will want to get to the Finals. Rumors of the Celtics, and the Big 3 demise, are greatly exaggerated. It is hard for 3 30+ guys who have won a Championship to keep their focus and motivation in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different story. This applies to the Lakers as well.

- Best 1st round series: Nuggets vs Jazz: I wanted to take the Jazz without Karl, but Nuggets have 2 premier players to the Jazz’ 1. Jazz need to give Williams a better sidekick than Boozer if they are going to make a run at a Championship.

- Best 2nd round series’: Celtics vs Cavs, and Lakers vs Mavs

- While the bottom of the East is a big step below the top 4, any team in the West can win any series. While I have chalk advancing in the West in the first round, the Spurs certainly have a legitimate chance to beat the Mavs; same with the Blazers over Suns, or Jazz over Nuggets. I would also not be surprised to see the Thunder take the Lakers to game 6 or 7, but would still expect the Lakers to prevail.

- The Lakers winning it all is likely to be the difference in Phil Jackson coaching the team next year, vs. Brian Shaw, Kurt Rambis, or Mike D’Antoni. Jackson will have to come back for the 2010-2011 season if he has the chance to 3-peat for the second time with the Lakers, and for the 4th time in his coaching career.

If they do not win, things could get dicey. Jackson is already going year to year, and there is talk that Lakers’ owner Jerry Buss may ask Jackson to take a pay cut to come back next year. If the Lakers win the Championship this year, I would expect things to work out for Jackson to come back to LA, but if they come up short, the Lakers, while the team would likely remain in tact, could be taking on a different look over on the bench.

- If this scenario plays out and the Cavaliers lose in the 2nd round, I am going to assume that Mike Brown gets fired. Failing to make the Finals for the 2nd straight year would be a blow to Cleveland, and it would be very interesting to see how that would affect Lebron’s decision this offseason.

If the Cavs win the Championship, I do not see how Lebron can realistically leave Cleveland. But if they come up short, especially by losing in the second round, things could change. I would still expect Lebron to remain in Cavs; I would expect the Cavs to go get a new coach, and perhaps another player to go along with Lebron. But things would be much more interesting, that’s for sure.

With 2010 offseason looming, NBA executives stuck between rock and a hard place

In 4 months, the NBA Playoff will be coming to an end, and the summer of 2010 will be underway.

This coming offseason has been anticipated for years. Teams such as the Knicks and Nets have been planning for this offseason for 2 years, gutting the team and clearing salary off the books so they could afford 1-2 big name free agents this offseason.

Some big names that could  be free agents include Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, and Joe Johnson, among others.

Nowitzki and Pierce will likely return to their respective teams, but for the others, it may be a whirlwind.

It is interesting to see how things are playing out though, and my thoughts on this were sparked by the recent Stoudemire trade rumors.

Many pundits have said that with the acquisition of Stoudemire, Lebron is almost a lock to return to Cleveland. I do not necessarily agree with that.

First of all, let’s take a look at the respective situations of Lebron James and Dwyane Wade.

Dywane Wade has said that he wants to return to Miami, but that he wants Pat Riley to bring in the pieces around him to guarantee championship contention year in and year out. Riley said, OK Dwyane, you sign here, and I’ll carry out your wishes. Wade said he will not sign until he sees what Riley does. Here is Pat Riley, stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Riley will have no problem complementing Dwyane Wade with perhaps a Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire to go along with Michael Beasley. However, Riley is not going to go out and spend money on these players, if Wade is not going to be there longterm. The Heat are not going to win anything with Bosh or Stoudemire as their best player. Therefore, Riley would need assurances from Wade that he will be back. For Riley, that assurance is in the form of a signed extension,, which Wade is unwilling to do until he sees what Riley does. Thus, the cycle.

With Lebron, it’s a similar situation. It is quite obvious that Lebron is going to test free agency, regardless of who the Cavaliers acquire. The question becomes, for people that say he will re-sign in Cleveland, what is he waiting for?

The NBA is not like the NFL or MLB as far as players making whatever money a team wants to offer them. There is a max contract that can be offered to Lebron, and the players’ current team can offer them one year longer than any other team. Cleveland can offer him the biggest deal with the extra year. Any other team can offer him a set, maximum contract. There will be no bidding war.

Lebron knows that he is going to get a max offer from several teams, and it would be naive to think that he, his agent, and representatives do not have a very good idea which teams they will be. If he is going to stay in Cleveland, why has he not signed now?

As far as the Stoudemire move is concerned, I don’t see how it will change Lebron’s mind at all, unless the Cavs win the Championship with Lebron and Amare.. If the Cavaliers win the Championship, Lebron will re-sign. That is as close to a given in the NBA as you can get…A player is not going to leave a championship team on his own, especially Lebron, in his home state of Cleveland.

Having said that, Stoudemire is not going to sign in Cleveland, if he is dealt there, before free agency starts. Therefore, the cycle starts again. Perhaps if the Cavs do not win it all, and Stoudemire re-signs with Cleveland early in free agency (assuming he is traded to Cleveland) Lebron will be more inclined to stay home in Cleveland. However, the Cavs could do that anyway, without trading for Amare. Of course, are the Cavs going to commit to giving Stoudemire a max deal, without knowing for sure whether Lebron will be back or not? Just like the Heat would not win with Bosh as their best player, the Cavs will not win with Amare as their best player.

It is a cycle that is easy to understand from both sides, but is tough to think about a potential solution for.

For those who believe that a potential Stoudemire acquisition will guarantee Lebron staying in Cleveland, all of that hope likely banks on the Cavaliers winning the Championship this year, while believing that Stoudemire makes that virtually  a lock.

That is not to say that Lebron will not re-sign if they do not win it all. But in order for Amare Stoudemire to affect his decision, it is likely that they will need to win the 2010 NBA Championship together.

Possible? Yes. But a near lock? The Celtics, Magic, Hawks, Spurs, Mavs, and defending champion Lakers may have something to say about that.

What does all of this tell us? Well, a lot goes into NBA decision making and free agency. In a league driven by the individual superstar, it is tough for GM’s and team’s to prepare without having a very firm idea of what their team will look like, superstar wise.

There will be teams that have thrown the past few years, who will not attract any significant talent, who continue to be bad for years. There will be the cycle that was just outlined that plays out in many organizations. Who will blink first? Is it more important for Danny Ferry and Pat Riley to keep their stars, or for the stars to stay in their respective homes?

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Recently, the NBA has undergone some changes player wise, but that movement could reach a unprecentdented level, depending on which path the offseason of 2010 takes.

A look at Steve Kerr’s tenure with Suns

Recently, there has been talk about the Suns trading Amare Stoudemire, most likely to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

A Stoudemire trade would be another deal completed by GM Steve Kerr. It is not a stretch to say that most Suns fans would rather forget Kerr’s short tenure as GM. To me, it has been fascinating over the last few years, to watch the transformation of that team from elite status to a bit of a mess. The main change that occurred between both periods? Steve Kerr.

In the 2004-2005 season, the Phoenix Suns went 62-20, and were the #1 seed in the playoffs. The Suns lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Spurs.

In the 2005-2006 season, the Suns went 54-28, winning their division. They lost once again in the Western Conference Finals, this time to the Dallas Mavericks.

In the 2006-2007 season, the Suns finished 2nd in the Western Conference, and really were playing perhaps their best basketball of the Nash/Dantoni, run n’ gun era. They lost in the conference semi-finals to the Spurs, however, in a very controversial series. In game 4, an altercation occurred, and Stoudemire left the bench area, but was not involved in the skirmish. However, due to NBA rules, he was suspended, which caused much outcry by the fans. The Suns went on to win game 4, which tied the series 2-2. Undermanned in game 5, the Suns lost, and eventually lost the series.

So to this point, in 3 years under Dantoni with Steve Nash at PG, the Suns reached the Conference Finals 2 times, and the Semi’s once, when they arguably had the better team than the Spurs, but were hurt by the questionable suspension of their second best player, as well as Boris Diaw.

The Suns by this point, had established a high powered offensive attack under offensive minded coach Mark Dantoni. Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion were the teams 1-2-3 punch, while Raja Bell contributed as a great defender and very solid scorer. Boris Diaw also was a big man who was a very solid contributor to the Suns’ team.

In the summer of 2007, Steve Kerr was named President and General Manager of the Phoenix Suns.

In July of 2007, the Suns traded Kurt Thomas and 2 first round picks to the Seattle Sonics for a future 2nd round pick and salary cap relief.

To start the 2007 season, the Suns had the best record in the Western Conference, at 34-14. They had put last season’s tough playoff series loss to the Spurs behind them, and were well on their way to making a run at the Championship.

However, with the best record in the West, Steve Kerr engineered a trade that sent Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks to the Miami Heat, for Shaquille O’Neal. Obviously, Shaq was a great player throughout his career, but did not fit in the offense that made the Suns so successful under coach Mike Dantoni.

The Suns went on to their worst finish in 4 years, losing to the Spurs 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs. After this finish, the Suns did not bring back coach Mike Dantoni, and Kerr hired Terry Porter, a much more conservative and slow tempo offensive mind, as head coach.

In 2008, Kerr traded Boris Diaw and Raja Bell to the Bobcats for Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, and a 2nd round pick.

Terry Porter was fired in February of 2009, replaced with Alvin Gentry. The Suns went on to miss the playoffs. After the season, Kerr traded Shaquille O’Neal to the Cavaliers for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, and a draft pick.

Before the 2009-2010 season, Kerr extended 35 year old Steve Nash through the 2011-2012 season, for 2 years/$22 million.

Now, that signals that perhaps Kerr felt that the Suns could compete going back to their old style of play under more up-tempo coach Alvin Gentry, with a healthy Stoudemire in 2009.

Now, the Suns have started off 31-20, and are poised to get back to the playoffs. Current rumors have the Suns trading Stoudemire before the deadline.

Do any of these moves make any kind of sense?

Seems to me like Kerr came in and felt that he had to make his mark. The Suns were going along fine; they were an elite team year after year. Now, they are a team going no where fast with an aging superstar signed for 3 more years.

Why get an aging center to clog up the middle in a very high tempo, “7 seconds or less” offense? Why sign Nash and then trade Stoudemire? Why not bring back Dantoni?

In less than 3 years, with a Stoudemire trade, Kerr will have traded or let go, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell,and Mike Dantoni, who were all part of the Suns elite years. Also, he traded Rudy Fernandez after drafting him, who has gone on to be a very solid player for the Blazers.

The Suns were the biggest thing in town prior to Steve Kerr’s arrival. Obviously, looking back, there was not enough room in town for both a championship contending Suns team, and Steve Kerr’s ego.